NEUTRALThe NEUTRAL regime marks a cautious holding pattern in which liquidity support is offset by inflation, weak flows, and fragile market breadth.
The week is defined by the tension between supportive liquidity and weak crypto demand. The fear and greed reading is 34, BTC weekly performance is -3.2, and total weekly BTC ETF flow is -385.2, keeping sentiment defensive. Although total stablecoin supply stands at 306.353, that capital has not yet translated into broad-based risk taking. Inflation pressure and negative institutional flows create a downside bias, while easy financial conditions preserve the NEUTRAL regime.
THREE THEMES OF THE WEEK
THEME 1 · Liquidity Inflation
NFCI at -0.549 signals supportive financial conditions, but CPI at 3.88 constrains policy flexibility. The liquidity backdrop and inflation pressure offset each other.
THEME 2 · Institutional Demand
Total weekly BTC ETF flow is -385.2 and the Coinbase premium is -0.11007017407628844, indicating weak spot demand. Until institutional flows recover, the transmission of liquidity into prices may remain limited.
THEME 3 · Fragile Breadth
UNI at -18.0 highlights pronounced internal weakness, while BTC is down -49.27 from its peak. Selective gains are not translating into broad-based risk appetite.
MACRO REGIME
MACRO SCOREBOARD
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)
N/A
N/A
US 10Y Yield
N/A%
N/A
2s10s SPREAD
N/A%
N/A
HY Credit Spread
N/A%
N/A
MOVE Index
N/A
N/A
VIX Index
N/A
N/A
US Inflation Path (CPI, Core CPI, Core PCE YoY — 5-Year) · series date 2026-06
What happened: In June 2026, headline CPI was 3.88, core CPI was 2.86, and core PCE was 3.29.
What it means: Inflation pressure keeps downside risk elevated for risk assets and especially long-duration bonds through the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, with core PCE remaining above 3.29 supporting that theme.
LIQUIDITY REGIME
US Federal Reserve Net Liquidity (3-Year Weekly) · series date 2026-08-16
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index — NFCI (3-Year Weekly) · series date 2026-08-07
What happened: The Fed balance sheet stands at $6.76T, with a weekly change of 0.17 and a monthly change of 0.25, while NFCI has fallen to -0.549.
What it means: As long as NFCI remains below -0.549, loose financial conditions support upside risk appetite in equities and crypto assets in the near term.
WHAT MATTERS NEXT
Next FOMC
Wed (31 days away)
Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
Date
Time (TRT)
Event
Country
Prev
Cons
Actual
19 Aug Wed
21:00
FOMC Meeting Minutes
USD
N/A
N/A
20 Aug Thu
15:30
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
USD
41.4
24.3
20 Aug Thu
15:30
Unemployment Claims
USD
209K
210K
21 Aug Fri
10:15
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR
50.0
50.1
21 Aug Fri
10:15
French Flash Services PMI
EUR
49.8
49.4
21 Aug Fri
10:30
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR
52.2
52.0
21 Aug Fri
10:30
German Flash Services PMI
EUR
49.6
50.2
What happened: The calendar includes FOMC minutes, US labor and manufacturing data, followed by European flash PMIs, with 31 days until the next FOMC.
What it means: BTC and technology equities face elevated short-term directional risk ahead of the FOMC minutes and high-frequency macro data; below-consensus US activity data would create downside risk for risk assets, with 31 days to the FOMC as the key horizon.
Macro & Crypto Assets Correlation Matrix (30-Day Rolling Daily Returns)
BTC × NDX
30G
+0.35
90G
N/A
BTC × GOLD
30G
+0.36
90G
N/A
BTC × DXY
30G
-0.38
90G
N/A
BTC × US10Y
30G
-0.02
90G
N/A
What happened: BTC’s 30-day correlation is -0.38 with DXY, 0.35 with NDX, 0.36 with gold, and -0.02 with the US 10-year; latest YTD returns are -28.669926307223985 for BTC, 19.201531681037608 for NDX, and 2.8485978380674912 for gold.
What it means: As long as DXY continues to strengthen, the negative correlation creates near-term downside risk for BTC, while BTC’s pronounced YTD lag versus NDX and gold requires confirmation in BTC before positioning for a risk-appetite recovery.
TURKEY DESK
BIST 100
N/A
N/A
USD/TRY
47.8791
● 0.00%
BIST 100 ($ Denom.)
N/A
N/A
CRYPTO FLOWS
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Weekly Net Flows
Week ending · 2026-08-16
BTC ETF
-385.2M
ETH ETF
-3.0M
Previous week
+865.3M
Context: BTC funding +0.0043% · OI w/w -1.9%
IBIT -78.9M · FBTC -153.1M
Bitcoin Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows ($ Millions)
ETH Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows: -3.0M · ETHA -16.4M · FETH -5.6M
Cumulative Spot BTC ETF Net Flows (Since Launch)
$52.5B
What happened: Bitcoin spot ETFs ended the week with -385.2 million in aggregate net flows, while Ethereum spot ETFs recorded -2.999999999999999 million in total net flows.
What it means: With ETF-driven demand retreating in Bitcoin, BTC’s near-term bias is to the downside; a return to positive weekly net flows would be the key threshold indicating that selling pressure is easing.
STABLECOIN SUPPLY & SHARE
Total Stablecoin Market Cap & USDT/USDC Shares (3-Year Weekly) · series date 2026-08-16
What happened: Total stablecoin supply stood at 306.353 as of 2026-08-16, with USDT at 182.98 and USDC at 71.935.
What it means: As long as total supply remains below the 320.279 threshold, liquidity support for crypto risk assets—especially BTC and altcoins—should remain weak in the near term.
CONFLICTING SIGNALS
BTC funding rate
+0.0043%
⇆
25Δ risk reversal
-2.81%
Reading: Perpetual funding measures levered directional positioning; the risk reversal measures demand for optional protection. Positive funding against a negative risk reversal is a market that is long and hedged at once — the two price different horizons.
S&P 500 sector breadth
64%
⇆
BTC 7-day performance
-3.20%
Reading: The conflict stands — the two readings still point opposite ways and we have no mechanism that explains it.
CRYPTO MARKET
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
Asset
Price
1H
24H
7D
BTC
$63,290.00
▲ +0.10%
▲ +0.20%
▼ -3.20%
ETH
$1,887.84
● 0.00%
● 0.00%
▼ -2.10%
SOL
$75.5500
▲ +0.20%
▲ +0.10%
▼ -1.80%
XRP
$1.0020
▲ +0.10%
● 0.00%
▼ -3.80%
LINK
$9.3700
▲ +0.40%
▼ -1.00%
▲ +13.00%
SUI
$0.679802
▲ +0.20%
▼ -0.30%
▼ -2.70%
ROTATION
Sector Category
7D Basket Avg Return
Layer 1 Protocols
▼ -1.40%
DeFi Protocols
▼ -3.43%
AI & Decentralized Compute
▼ -4.50%
Meme Tokens
▼ -4.75%
What happened: All major rotation groups were negative, with UNI leading losses at -18.0 while LINK diverged with a 13.0 gain.
What it means: In the short term, downside risk remains dominant for DeFi and meme tokens, while LINK's positive divergence needs to persist independently of broader market weakness.
BTC REGIME
Mayer Multiple
0.914
Spot / 200d SMA
200WMA Distance
-1.1%
WMA: $63,997
Drawdown from ATH
-49.3%
ATH: $124,753
BTC Spot Price
$63,290
Real-time
Bitcoin Monthly Return Heatmap (2024–2026)
* Current month is marked.
What happened: Bitcoin spot is at 63290, below its 200-week average of 63996.5557421875, and -49.27 from its all-time high.
What it means: Bitcoin remaining below the 200-week average at 63996.5557421875 supports cautious short-term positioning; a reclaim of that threshold would confirm a medium-term recovery.
FUTURES TERM STRUCTURE & POSITIONING
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 180D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (24H Bars)
-0.1101%
▼ US selling pressure
-0.049%
24h High
-0.138%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure
BTC Futures Basis
N/A
ETH Futures Basis
N/A
7D Avg Funding Rates
BTC 7D Avg
▲ +0.0043%
ETH 7D Avg
▼ -0.0006%
Open Interest w/w Change
BTC OI Change
149.37M ▼ -1.92%
ETH OI Change
51.70M ▼ -0.32%
25Δ Risk Reversal (Monthly)
-2.81%
Call IV - Put IV (28AUG26)
Large Options Expirations
Expiry Date
Total Notional
Max Pain Strike
17AUG26 (17 Aug 2026)
$109.3M
$63,000
18AUG26 (18 Aug 2026)
$70.1M
$63,000
What happened: The Coinbase premium remains negative at -0.11007017407628844, while the 4-hour trend is Bearish and the fear index is 34.
What it means: BTC's near-term setup remains tilted lower; positioning should stay defensive while 60579.885 holds as support, with a sustained move above 73104.79000000001 warranting a reassessment.