NEUTRALThe neutral regime reflects a fragile balance between ample financial conditions and the drag from inflation, fund outflows, and weak market breadth.
The market regime is neutral: supportive financial conditions are offset by persistent inflation pressure and weak crypto market breadth. BTC stands at 77343 with a weekly performance of -3.0, while sector losses show that risk appetite remains narrow. Weekly net BTC ETF flows were -462.7M versus +196.9M for ETH ETFs, signaling selective rotation rather than broad-based demand. Ahead of the FOMC, direction will depend on whether 67582.155 support or 80107.06 resistance breaks first.
THREE THEMES OF THE WEEK
THEME 1 · Liquidity Support
The NFCI at -0.564 signals supportive financial conditions, with global liquidity at $6.74T. However, that support has not yet translated into broad-based crypto demand.
THEME 2 · Inflation Pressure
Core PCE stands at 3.34 and the federal funds rate forecast is 3.75%, limiting prospective support from monetary policy. The approaching FOMC is the key catalyst for risk assets.
THEME 3 · Weak Breadth
DeFi protocols fell -8.333333333333334, while weekly net BTC ETF flows were -462.7M. Weekly net ETH ETF flows of +196.9M point to selective rotation rather than a market-wide advance.
MACRO REGIME
MACRO SCOREBOARD
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)
N/A
N/A
US 10Y Yield
N/A%
N/A
2s10s SPREAD
N/A%
N/A
HY Credit Spread
N/A%
N/A
MOVE Index
N/A
N/A
VIX Index
N/A
N/A
US Inflation Path (CPI, Core CPI, Core PCE YoY — 5-Year) · series date 2026-07
What happened: In July 2026, core PCE was 3.34%, headline CPI was 3.52%, and the expected federal funds rate for the upcoming FOMC is 3.75%.
What it means: As long as core PCE remains above 3.34%, room for near-term rate cuts is constrained; until a clear move below that threshold, a cautious stance is warranted in long-duration bonds and highly valued technology equities.
LIQUIDITY REGIME
US Federal Reserve Net Liquidity (3-Year Weekly) · series date 2026-09-13
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index — NFCI (3-Year Weekly) · series date 2026-09-04
What happened: NFCI stands at -0.564 with a weekly change of -0.0039999999999998925, while the Fed balance sheet is $6.74T after a 0.05 weekly increase and a -0.29 monthly change.
What it means: As long as NFCI remains negative and continues to decline, risk appetite in Bitcoin and high-beta equities is supported over coming weeks; a sustained reversal above -0.564 would weaken that support.
WHAT MATTERS NEXT
Next FOMC
Wed (3 days away)
Median Dot (2026)
3.80%
Date
Time (TRT)
Event
Country
Prev
Cons
Actual
16 Sep Wed
15:30
Core Retail Sales MoM
USD
-0.3%
0.5%
16 Sep Wed
15:30
Retail Sales MoM
USD
-0.6%
0.8%
16 Sep Wed
21:00
Federal Funds Rate
USD
3.75%
3.75%
16 Sep Wed
21:00
FOMC Economic Projections
USD
N/A
N/A
16 Sep Wed
21:00
FOMC Statement
USD
N/A
N/A
17 Sep Thu
15:30
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
USD
47.4
28.9
17 Sep Thu
15:30
Unemployment Claims
USD
206K
209K
What happened: Markets expect the federal funds rate to remain at 3.75% at the FOMC meeting in 3 days, while the 2026 dot median stands at 3.8.
What it means: Near-term direction for U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, equities, and crypto hinges on the FOMC statement and projections around the 3.8 threshold, elevating event risk ahead of the meeting.
Macro & Crypto Assets Correlation Matrix (30-Day Rolling Daily Returns)
BTC × NDX
30G
+0.22
90G
+0.19
BTC × GOLD
30G
+0.82
90G
+0.62
BTC × DXY
30G
-0.62
90G
-0.48
BTC × US10Y
30G
-0.23
90G
-0.11
What happened: BTC's 30-day correlation with gold has risen to 0.82, while its 30-day correlation with DXY is -0.62.
What it means: Over the next 30 days, BTC upside positioning is supported if gold strengthens while DXY weakens; a breakdown in these correlations would invalidate the signal.
TURKEY DESK
BIST 100
N/A
N/A
USD/TRY
48.5546
▼ -0.08%
BIST 100 ($ Denom.)
N/A
N/A
CRYPTO FLOWS
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Weekly Net Flows
Week ending · 2026-09-13
BTC ETF
-462.7M
ETH ETF
+196.9M
Previous week
+986.7M
Context: BTC funding +0.0097% · OI w/w -6.6%
IBIT -52.5M · FBTC -50.7M
Bitcoin Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows ($ Millions)
ETH Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows: +196.9M · ETHA +139.9M · FETH -3.9M
Cumulative Spot BTC ETF Net Flows (Since Launch)
$55.9B
What happened: In the week ending September 13, BTC spot ETFs recorded -462.7M in net outflows, while ETH spot ETFs saw +196.9M in net inflows.
What it means: Stay cautious on BTC in the near term; ETH may remain relatively stronger on institutional demand until BTC ETF flows return to positive territory.
STABLECOIN SUPPLY & SHARE
Total Stablecoin Market Cap & USDT/USDC Shares (3-Year Weekly) · series date 2026-09-13
What happened: Total stablecoin supply fell to 310.246 as of 2026-09-13, while USDT stood at 183.498 and USDC at 74.41.
What it means: The weekly contraction signals softer near-term buying power for crypto risk assets; cautious positioning in BTC and altcoins remains warranted unless total supply moves back above 310.429.
CONFLICTING SIGNALS
BTC funding rate
+0.0097%
⇆
25Δ risk reversal
-0.91%
Reading: Perpetual funding measures levered directional positioning; the risk reversal measures demand for optional protection. Positive funding against a negative risk reversal is a market that is long and hedged at once — the two price different horizons.
S&P 500 sector breadth
82%
⇆
BTC 7-day performance
-3.00%
Reading: The conflict stands — the two readings still point opposite ways and we have no mechanism that explains it.
CRYPTO MARKET
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
Asset
Price
1H
24H
7D
BTC
$77,343.00
● 0.00%
▲ +0.25%
▼ -3.00%
ETH
$2,508.16
● 0.00%
▼ -0.61%
▲ +0.80%
SOL
$101.20
▲ +0.20%
▼ -0.47%
▼ -4.80%
XRP
$1.3600
▲ +0.30%
▼ -0.51%
▼ -4.00%
TRX
$0.341457
● 0.00%
▲ +0.45%
▲ +1.70%
UNI
$6.3500
▲ +0.40%
▲ +0.56%
▼ -12.70%
ROTATION
Sector Category
7D Basket Avg Return
Layer 1 Protocols
▼ -4.22%
DeFi Protocols
▼ -8.33%
AI & Decentralized Compute
▼ -8.20%
Meme Tokens
▼ -5.25%
What happened: All major groups declined in sector rotation, with DeFi Protocols the weakest segment at -8.333333333333334 and UNI leading losses at -12.7.
What it means: Near-term downside risk remains dominant for DeFi tokens, and this setup will weaken only if DeFi Protocols moves out of negative territory.
BTC REGIME
Mayer Multiple
1.103
Spot / 200d SMA
200WMA Distance
+18.7%
WMA: $65,172
Drawdown from ATH
-38.0%
ATH: $124,753
BTC Spot Price
$77,343
Real-time
Bitcoin Monthly Return Heatmap (2024–2026)
* Current month is marked.
What happened: Bitcoin spot trades at 77343, versus its 200-week moving average of 65172.37045898438 and 200-day simple moving average of 70138.0834765625, with the Mayer Multiple at 1.103.
What it means: As long as Bitcoin holds above 70138.0834765625, the medium-term technical backdrop remains constructive; a break below that threshold would signal a bearish regime shift for risk appetite.
FUTURES TERM STRUCTURE & POSITIONING
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 180D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (24H Bars)
-0.0321%
▼ US selling pressure
+0.032%
24h High
-0.052%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure
BTC Futures Basis
N/A
ETH Futures Basis
N/A
7D Avg Funding Rates
BTC 7D Avg
▲ +0.0097%
ETH 7D Avg
▲ +0.0127%
Open Interest w/w Change
BTC OI Change
149.54M ▼ -6.60%
ETH OI Change
77.69M ▲ +4.18%
25Δ Risk Reversal (Monthly)
-0.91%
Call IV - Put IV (25SEP26)
Large Options Expirations
Expiry Date
Total Notional
Max Pain Strike
14SEP26 (14 Sep 2026)
$233.3M
$77,000
15SEP26 (15 Sep 2026)
$114.2M
$77,000
What happened: BTC and ETH funding rates are positive, while the 25-delta risk reversal for 25SEP26 is -0.9099999999999966 and the Coinbase premium is -0.03212083327515555.
What it means: Despite short-term derivatives long appetite in BTC, downside option hedging and a negative US spot premium support defensive positioning; remain neutral unless 67582.155 support breaks, while a move above 80107.06 would mark stronger risk appetite.