NEUTRALNEUTRAL: Supportive liquidity and strong rotation are offset by inflation and weak flow quality.
The week presents a NEUTRAL setup defined by the balance between supportive liquidity, persistent inflation, and a fragile flow structure. BTC stands at 81176 after a weekly gain of 5.0%, while AVAX’s 48.6% change demonstrates the strength of selective rotation. In contrast, ETH ETF weekly net flow of -140.60000000000002M and the negative Coinbase premium raise questions about the quality of demand behind the advance. The central conclusion is that risk appetite remains intact, but broad-based confirmation has not yet emerged.
THREE THEMES OF THE WEEK
THEME 1 · Liquidity Support
Financial conditions remain supportive with nfci_current=-0.56, while global liquidity stands at $6.75T. This backdrop supports risk assets, although inflation pressure limits its force.
THEME 2 · Selective Rotation
AVAX leads the strong rotation with a weekly change of 48.6%, highlighting selective risk-taking rather than a broad-based advance. BTC’s weekly performance of 5.0% also supports constructive momentum.
THEME 3 · Flow Divergence
ETH ETF weekly net flow was -140.60000000000002M, while BTC ETF flow remained positive at 6.100000000000023M. The negative Coinbase premium and rising open interest increase caution about the quality of spot demand behind the rally.
MACRO REGIME
MACRO SCOREBOARD
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)
N/A
N/A
US 10Y Yield
N/A%
N/A
2s10s SPREAD
N/A%
N/A
HY Credit Spread
N/A%
N/A
MOVE Index
N/A
N/A
VIX Index
N/A
N/A
US Inflation Path (CPI, Core CPI, Core PCE YoY — 5-Year) · series date 2026-07
What happened: In July 2026, core PCE was 3.34, headline CPI was 3.52, and core CPI was 2.67.
What it means: As long as core PCE remains above 3.34, downside risk persists for rate-cut-sensitive BTC and growth equities into the 2026-10-28 FOMC meeting.
LIQUIDITY REGIME
US Federal Reserve Net Liquidity (3-Year Weekly) · series date 2026-09-20
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index — NFCI (3-Year Weekly) · series date 2026-09-11
What happened: The Fed balance sheet stands at $6.75T; NFCI fell to -0.56 while net liquidity rose to 5.868944.
What it means: As long as NFCI remains below -0.56, easier financial conditions support upward positioning in Bitcoin and risk assets over the near term.
WHAT MATTERS NEXT
Next FOMC
Wed (38 days away)
Median Dot (2026)
4.10%
Date
Time (TRT)
Event
Country
Prev
Cons
Actual
23 Sep Wed
10:15
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR
51.5
50.9
23 Sep Wed
10:15
French Flash Services PMI
EUR
48.4
48.4
23 Sep Wed
10:30
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR
54.1
54.0
23 Sep Wed
10:30
German Flash Services PMI
EUR
48.5
49.9
24 Sep Thu
15:30
Unemployment Claims
USD
196K
201K
25 Sep Fri
17:00
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD
47.8
47.5
25 Sep Fri
17:00
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
USD
4.6%
N/A
What happened: This week’s calendar includes euro-area flash PMIs, US jobless claims, and consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, while the next FOMC meeting is 38 days away.
What it means: If US inflation expectations remain above 4.6%, rate-cut expectations could be constrained in the near term, creating upside risk for the dollar and bond yields and downside risk for Bitcoin and equities.
Macro & Crypto Assets Correlation Matrix (30-Day Rolling Daily Returns)
BTC × NDX
30G
+0.47
90G
+0.23
BTC × GOLD
30G
+0.62
90G
+0.58
BTC × DXY
30G
-0.39
90G
-0.40
BTC × US10Y
30G
-0.26
90G
-0.10
What happened: BTC's 30-day correlation with gold is 0.62 and its 90-day correlation is 0.58, while its correlations with DXY are -0.39 and -0.4, respectively.
What it means: If the gold-BTC relationship remains above 0.62, defensive macro flows could support BTC in the short term; DXY strength poses downside risk to BTC given the -0.39 threshold.
TURKEY DESK
BIST 100
N/A
N/A
USD/TRY
48.7715
▼ -0.01%
BIST 100 ($ Denom.)
N/A
N/A
CRYPTO FLOWS
SPOT BITCOIN ETF FLOWS
ETF Weekly Net Flows
Week ending · 2026-09-20
BTC ETF
+6.1M
ETH ETF
-140.6M
Previous week
-462.7M
Context: BTC funding +0.0053% · OI w/w +17.7%
IBIT +120.6M · FBTC +79.9M
Bitcoin Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows ($ Millions)
ETH Spot ETF Weekly Net Flows: -140.6M · ETHA -56.1M · FETH -25.9M
Cumulative Spot BTC ETF Net Flows (Since Launch)
$55.9B
What happened: In the latest week, Bitcoin ETFs were broadly flat with 6.100000000000023M in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs recorded -140.60000000000002M in net outflows.
What it means: As long as Ethereum ETF outflows persist and Bitcoin ETF net flows do not move decisively into positive territory, short-term positioning favors downside exposure in ETH and caution in BTC.
STABLECOIN SUPPLY & SHARE
Total Stablecoin Market Cap & USDT/USDC Shares (3-Year Weekly) · series date 2026-09-20
What happened: As of 2026-09-20, total stablecoin supply stands at 309.998, with USDT at 183.301 and USDC at 74.335.
What it means: As long as supply remains below the 310.429 threshold, there is limited support for short-term upside positioning in crypto risk assets driven by fresh liquidity.
CONFLICTING SIGNALS
S&P 500 sector breadth
18%
⇆
BTC 7-day performance
+5.00%
Reading: The conflict stands — the two readings still point opposite ways and we have no mechanism that explains it.
CRYPTO MARKET
CRYPTO WATCHLIST
Asset
Price
1H
24H
7D
BTC
$81,176.00
▼ -0.20%
▼ -0.37%
▲ +5.00%
ETH
$2,630.80
▼ -0.50%
▼ -0.43%
▲ +4.80%
SOL
$109.73
▼ -0.30%
▼ -1.29%
▲ +9.00%
XRP
$1.4100
▼ -0.50%
▼ -1.60%
▲ +3.80%
AVAX
$11.0900
▼ -2.90%
▲ +13.66%
▲ +48.60%
TRX
$0.343466
▼ -0.20%
▲ +1.29%
▲ +0.70%
ROTATION
Sector Category
7D Basket Avg Return
Layer 1 Protocols
▲ +17.84%
DeFi Protocols
▲ +18.43%
AI & Decentralized Compute
▲ +20.80%
Meme Tokens
▲ +10.05%
What happened: AI & Decentralized Compute led sector rotation at 20.8, while AVAX gained 48.6, UNI 38.8, and SUI 24.7.
What it means: As risk appetite broadens, short-term positioning favors AVAX, UNI, and SUI; RENDER retains upside support while AI & Decentralized Compute holds above 20.8.
BTC REGIME
Mayer Multiple
1.151
Spot / 200d SMA
200WMA Distance
+23.9%
WMA: $65,494
Drawdown from ATH
-34.9%
ATH: $124,753
BTC Spot Price
$81,176
Real-time
Bitcoin Monthly Return Heatmap (2024–2026)
* Current month is marked.
What happened: Bitcoin spot is 81176, above the 200-day average of 70504.6470703125 and the 200-week weighted average of 65494.39731445313, while the Mayer Multiple stands at 1.151.
What it means: As long as BTC holds above 70504.6470703125, medium-term risk appetite supports long exposure; a break below that level is the threshold for defensive positioning.
FUTURES TERM STRUCTURE & POSITIONING
COINBASE PREMIUM INDEX — 180D
BTC/USD · Coinbase vs Global Spread (24H Bars)
-0.0340%
▼ US selling pressure
+0.018%
24h High
-0.089%
24h Low
Reading Guide: Positive values indicate US institutional buying pressure. Sustained positive premium is a bullish signal for BTC.
FEAR & GREED
Futures Term Structure
BTC Futures Basis
N/A
ETH Futures Basis
N/A
7D Avg Funding Rates
BTC 7D Avg
▲ +0.0053%
ETH 7D Avg
▲ +0.0019%
Open Interest w/w Change
BTC OI Change
175.62M ▲ +17.72%
ETH OI Change
79.72M ▲ +4.63%
25Δ Risk Reversal (Monthly)
+5.14%
Call IV - Put IV (25SEP26)
Large Options Expirations
Expiry Date
Total Notional
Max Pain Strike
21SEP26 (21 Sep 2026)
$259.2M
$80,500
22SEP26 (22 Sep 2026)
$135.4M
$80,000
What happened: The Coinbase premium remains at -0.03399421987451636, while the 4-hour BTC trend is Bearish and BTC open interest has risen 17.723742185880383 over 7 days.
What it means: For BTC, 69509.94 is the key short-term downside threshold; a break below it would raise selling pressure and liquidation risk alongside elevated leverage.