Short explanations of the macro, market and crypto terms that show up in the essays and the bulletin. Filter to find one.
The cash moving in and out of a company over a given period. Not the same as profit: accounting profit can be positive while cash flow is negative. That's where "no cash flow" comes from.
A plot of bond yields across maturities. Normally long-term > short-term. When it inverts, it has historically been a recession warning.
When the 2-year yield rises above the 10-year. It signals the market expects near-term rate cuts or a slowdown, and it has led most recent recessions.
The 30-day expected-volatility index derived from S&P 500 options. The "fear index" — the higher it climbs, the greater the market stress. Below 20 is calm, above 30 is tense.
The dollar's index against six major currencies. A strong dollar (104+) typically weighs on commodities and emerging markets.
An index that scores crypto-market sentiment from 0 to 100. 0–25 is extreme fear, 75+ extreme greed. Often used as a contrarian signal.
The BTC price gap between Coinbase and Binance. Positive = US institutional buying pressure; negative = retail-driven or institutional outflow.
Bitcoin's share of total crypto market cap. A rise is usually read as a "flight from altcoins to BTC," a fall as an "altseason" signal.
Decentralized Finance — lending, swapping and yield protocols that run on smart contracts with no intermediary. Code instead of a bank.
Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 is expansion, below is contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a leading recession indicator.
One hundredth of a percentage point. 25 bps = 0.25%. Rate and bond moves are quoted in bps.
A central bank shrinking its balance sheet — letting bonds roll off at maturity and draining liquidity from the market. The opposite of QE.
Institutional, informed capital — funds, banks, the "smart" players. Their flows often turn before retail does.
The oil consumed per unit of GDP. In 1973 it took ~1 barrel per $1,000 of GDP; today ~0.43. Why the same price shock does less damage now.
The periodic payment between longs and shorts on perpetual crypto contracts. Positive = longs dominate (leveraged optimism).