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Macro · The Regime Updated: 20 Aug 2026, 07:38 CET

Where the economy actually stands.

Not a price board — the readings that set the regime. Inflation, the Fed, liquidity and the curve, each with the read that matters. Updated as the data prints.

Fed Funds
3.50–3.75
held
Next FOMC
Sep 16
27d
Cut odds (Sep 16)
1.5%
▲ from 1.4%
Core CPI
2.8%
core
US 10Y
4.71
2s10s
+46
steepening
DXY
98.85
F&G
62
Greed
§ 01Inflation & Prices
Headline CPI · YoY
3.5%
→ from 3.5%
Core CPI · YoY
2.8%
→ from 2.8%
Core PCE · YoY
3.3%
→ from 3.3%
5y5y Breakeven
2.32%
▼ -1bp
§ 02Fed & Policy

Rate-cut odds — next FOMC meetings

Polymarket · probability of a cut at each meeting
Sep 161.5%▲ from 1.4%
Oct 285.2%▼ from 5.4%
Dec 99.0%▼ from 9.2%
Jan 2720%
Target range
3.50–3.75
held 4 mtgs
Balance sheet
$6.8T
▼ QT ongoing
Reverse repo
$317M
▼ draining
Dot plot '26
3.80%
2026 median
§ 03Liquidity

Net liquidity — Fed balance sheet − TGA − RRP

weekly · USD trn
6.15.85.6
M2 supply
$23.2T
▲ +5.5% YoY
Net liquidity
$5.80T
▼ -1.9% 3m
Stablecoin supply
$308B
USDC $73B
§ 04Growth & Labor
Empire State Mfg
+20.6
Empire State · NY Fed
Nonfarm payrolls
-23K
→ MoM
Jobless claims
209K
▲ +9K
GDPNow · Q2
1.9%
Atlanta Fed
§ 05Rates & the Dollar

US Treasury yield curve

tenor vs. yield · the desk's signature read
5.64.53.51M3M6M2Y5Y10Y30Y
US 2Y
4.19
+0.8%
US 10Y
4.71
+1.3%
2s10s spread
+46bp
steepening
HY spread
275bp
→ calm
§ 06This week
DateTime (CET)EventCountryPrev.Cons.Actual
Wed09:10ECB President Lagarde Speaks🇪🇺 EUR
Wed12:15ECB President Lagarde Speaks🇪🇺 EUR
Wed20:00FOMC Meeting Minutes ⭐🇺🇸 USD
Wed20:30President Trump Speaks🇺🇸 USD
Thu14:30Philly Fed Manufacturing Index🇺🇸 USD41.424.1
Thu14:30Unemployment Claims🇺🇸 USD209K210K
Fri09:15French Flash Manufacturing PMI🇪🇺 EUR5050.1
Fri09:15French Flash Services PMI🇪🇺 EUR49.849.4
Fri09:30German Flash Manufacturing PMI🇪🇺 EUR52.252.1
Fri09:30German Flash Services PMI🇪🇺 EUR49.650.1