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Morning EditionFriday, October 23, 2026Barcelona
Macro · The Regime Updated: 23 Oct 2026, 11:54 CET

Where the economy actually stands.

Not a price board — the readings that set the regime. Inflation, the Fed, liquidity and the curve, each with the read that matters. Updated as the data prints.

Fed Funds
3.75–4.00
held
Next FOMC
Oct 28
5d
Core CPI
2.8%
core
US 10Y
5.13
2s10s
+31
steepening
DXY
101.73
F&G
50
Neutral
§ 01Inflation & Prices
Headline CPI · YoY
4.0%
→ from 4.0%
Core CPI · YoY
2.8%
→ from 2.8%
Core PCE · YoY
3.0%
→ from 3.0%
5y5y Breakeven
2.19%
▼ -15bp
§ 02Fed & Policy

Rate-cut odds — next FOMC meetings

Polymarket · probability of a cut at each meeting
Oct 280.9%
Dec 92.2%▼ from 2.6%
Jan 277.9%▼ from 8.5%
Target range
3.75–4.00
held 4 mtgs
Balance sheet
$6.8T
▼ QT ongoing
Reverse repo
$351M
▼ draining
Dot plot '26
4.10%
2026 median
§ 03Liquidity

Net liquidity — Fed balance sheet − TGA − RRP

weekly · USD trn
6.15.85.6
M2 supply
$23.3T
▲ +5.7% YoY
Net liquidity
$5.80T
▼ -0.3% 3m
Stablecoin supply
$305B
USDC $72B
§ 04Growth & Labor
Empire State Mfg
+25.5
Empire State · NY Fed
Nonfarm payrolls
+29K
→ MoM
Jobless claims
194K
▼ -6K
GDPNow · Q2
1.9%
Atlanta Fed
§ 05Rates & the Dollar

US Treasury yield curve

tenor vs. yield · the desk's signature read
5.74.83.81M3M6M2Y5Y10Y30Y
US 2Y
4.81
+0.8%
US 10Y
5.13
+1.3%
2s10s spread
+31bp
steepening
HY spread
327bp
→ calm
§ 06This week
DateTime (CET)EventCountryPrev.Cons.Actual
Thu14:30Unemployment Claims🇺🇸 USD199K200K—
Fri09:15French Flash Manufacturing PMI🇪🇺 EUR50.350.5—
Fri09:15French Flash Services PMI🇪🇺 EUR51.450.7—
Fri09:30German Flash Manufacturing PMI🇪🇺 EUR53.853.5—
Fri09:30German Flash Services PMI🇪🇺 EUR52.952.5—
Fri15:45Flash Manufacturing PMI🇺🇸 USD5755.4—
Fri15:45Flash Services PMI🇺🇸 USD58.757.9—
Fri16:00Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment🇺🇸 USD46.346.3—
Fri16:00Revised UoM Inflation Expectations🇺🇸 USD4.7%——