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Morning EditionSunday, July 5, 2026Barcelona
Macro · The Regime Updated:

Where the economy actually stands.

Not a price board — the readings that set the regime. Inflation, the Fed, liquidity and the curve, each with the read that matters. Updated as the data prints.

Fed Funds
3.50–3.75
held
Next FOMC
Jul 29
24d
Cut odds (Jul)
22%
▲ from 14%
Core CPI
3.0%
core
US 10Y
4.48
2s10s
+35
steepening
DXY
100.86
F&G
23
Extreme Fear
§ 01Inflation & Prices
Headline CPI · YoY
4.3%
→ from 4.3%
Core CPI · YoY
3.0%
→ from 3.0%
Core PCE · YoY
3.4%
→ from 3.4%
5y5y Breakeven
2.22%
→ +0bp
§ 02Fed & Policy

Rate-cut odds — next four meetings

implied from Fed Funds futures
No live feed yet. Odds print here as CME FedWatch data lands; until then, the dot plot on the right is the desk’s read.
Target range
3.50–3.75
held 4 mtgs
Balance sheet
$6.7T
▼ QT ongoing
Reverse repo
$2B
▼ draining
Dot plot '26
3.80%
2026 median
§ 03Liquidity

Net liquidity — Fed balance sheet − TGA − RRP

weekly · USD trn
6.05.85.6
M2 supply
$23.1T
▲ +5.6% YoY
Net liquidity
$5.84T
▼ -1.8% 3m
Stablecoin supply
$310B
USDC $73B
§ 04Growth & Labor
Empire State Mfg
+5.7
Empire State · NY Fed
Nonfarm payrolls
+57K
→ MoM
Jobless claims
215K
▼ -1K
GDPNow · Q2
1.9%
Atlanta Fed
§ 05Rates & the Dollar

US Treasury yield curve

tenor vs. yield · the desk's signature read
5.34.33.41M3M6M2Y5Y10Y30Y
US 2Y
4.17
+0.8%
US 10Y
4.48
+1.3%
2s10s spread
+35bp
steepening
HY spread
275bp
→ calm
§ 06This week
DateTime (CET)EventCountryPrev.Cons.Actual
Mon16:00ISM Services PMI ⭐🇺🇸 USD54.554.2
Wed20:00FOMC Meeting Minutes ⭐🇺🇸 USD
Thu14:30Unemployment Claims🇺🇸 USD215K218K