Headline fell the most since April 2020 — but the real break was core at 0.0%, and it just took the Warsh hike off the table.
June headline fell −0.4%, the most since April 2020 — but core came in at 0.0% against a 0.3% consensus. The sticky-core story broke, and the market took the Warsh hike off the table.
May CPI hit 4.2%, a three-year high driven almost entirely by energy, while core held at 2.9%. Warsh wants it to fall — and the July prints decide whether it does.
The June FOMC held at 3.50–3.75%, but Warsh dropped forward guidance and the 2026 dot jumped from 3.4% to 3.8% — a hike now sits on the table.
Iran calls Hormuz closed again; CENTCOM counts 55 transits the same day. The scorecard: the US (+$50B) and Russia won the shock — the Gulf lost.
VIX, DXY, yields, Fear & Greed and the key assets. Everything you need in 60 seconds.
BTC dominance, funding rates, the Coinbase Premium Index and on-chain flows.
Rate probabilities from CME FedWatch, dot-plot updates and Powell speech analysis.
The day's key releases with previous, consensus and a significance flag.
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