JPMorgan called Q1 2026 the year institutions would dominate crypto flows. The data tells a different story: Iran war, VIX at 26, Fear & Greed at 12. The Coinbase Premium Index shows exactly where the real money went — and it wasn’t in.
Institutional flows turned net-negative for the first time since Q3 2023. Dimon memo circulated to private clients this morning. Bitcoin ETF outflows 8 consecutive days.
Dot plot shows 1 cut in 2026, down from 3. Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%. 2Y Treasury +12bp intraday.
Wholesale prices pre-war. March reading (April 11) will be the first full oil-shock data.
IEA announces largest-ever coordinated SPR release: 180M barrels over 60 days.
USDC now the only top-5 stablecoin with full EU MiCA compliance. Tether delisted from Binance EU.
JPM January expectation vs Q1 reality. The Coinbase Premium Index tells the real story about institutional crypto flows.
IEA: data centers will consume 945 TWh by 2030 — all of Japan’s annual electricity. Microsoft $16B, Amazon $20B+, Google 500MW.
Historically the economy’s thermometer. But AI data centers, EVs, and renewables all demand it simultaneously. S&P projects 10M tonne deficit by 2040.
Brent up 40%, Hormuz closed, 1970s analogies everywhere. But in 1973 it took 1 barrel per $1,000 GDP. Today: 0.43.