Everything you need to know before markets open, curated from Bloomberg, Reuters, FT, and primary sources. Six stories, four minutes. No filler.
Institutional flows turned net-negative for the first time since Q3 2023. Dimon memo circulated to private clients this morning cites “geopolitical risk recalibration.” Bitcoin ETF outflows 8 consecutive days. Coinbase Premium Index signals US institutions are not buying the dip.
Dot plot shows 1 cut in 2026, down from 3. Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%. Markets priced in dovish surprise; none delivered. 2Y Treasury +12bp intraday. Powell explicitly refused to commit to a cutting cadence until data clears.
Wholesale prices pre-war. March reading (April 11) will be the first full oil-shock data. Morgan Stanley sees PPI 0.9–1.1%, CPI above 3% by June. Services inflation sticky at 4.2%.
IEA announces largest-ever coordinated SPR release: 180M barrels over 60 days. US, UK, Japan, Korea participating. Reuters: Saudi Arabia in “quiet coordination” despite public silence. Brent-WTI spread at widest since 2011.
USDC now the only top-5 stablecoin with full EU MiCA compliance. Tether (USDT) delisted from Binance EU at 00:01 UTC. CRCL +8.2% pre-market. Circle announces Euro Coin expansion to 14 new EU markets.
No hint at June cut timing. Two hawkish dissents (Germany, Netherlands). EUR/USD 1.0684, lowest since January. European PMI Tuesday first war-era reading.
Chile strike enters week 3. Codelco supply 400K tonnes at risk. LME inventories at 2019 lows. Goldman target $5.00 by Q3.
Labor market still tight despite rate hold. Continuing claims 1.84M. Tech layoffs not yet reflected in data.