Every Sunday I try to answer one macro question — not what the headlines are saying, but what the data actually shows. No recycled hot takes. No crypto maximalism. Just the work.
JPMorgan called Q1 2026 the year institutions would dominate crypto flows. The data tells a different story: Iran war, VIX at 26, Fear & Greed at 12. The Coinbase Premium Index shows exactly where the real money went — and it wasn’t in. Here’s what 90 days of flow data reveals about how institutions actually behave in risk-off regimes.
Read the full issue →IEA: data centers will consume 945 TWh by 2030 — all of Japan’s annual electricity. Microsoft $16B, Amazon $20B+, Google 500MW. This is not an energy story, it’s a capital allocation story.
Historically the economy’s thermometer. But AI data centers, EVs, and renewables all demand it simultaneously. S&P Global projects a 10M tonne deficit by 2040. Dr. Copper may have a new disease.
Brent up 40%, Hormuz closed, 1970s analogies everywhere. But in 1973 it took 1 barrel per $1,000 GDP. Today: 0.43. PPI came in double expectations. Powell said “we don’t know” 17 times.
Trump called him “Too Late Powell.” But by not cutting rates, he may have protected the economy from shocks. Coming after March CPI — all scenarios on the table.